Weekly market report week 02/2016
Tea market report 11-15 January, 2016
Normally fireworks are shot up into the sky. The fireworks at this week’s Mombasa auction didn’t go up. All the best, below best and good medium types eased on the back of the all-time record auction quantity for week 4. Also the good November crop figure must have played a role. The weather has become drier in the past few weeks which made the crop intake slightly decline.
In Malawi the December crop was good and provided some compensation for the existing crop deficit. In the meantime we see the good December crop turning into slightly higher auction quantities than last year. But currently the weather conditions are dry and the earlier forecasted rains didn’t come. It hasn’t rained for the past 10 days.
This week’s Colombo auction continued its volatile way, most grades traded firm to easier. Oil trading at a price level starting with a 2 isn’t supportive for currencies and markets in the biggest Ceylon tea drinking countries.
With all buyers back from their holidays, the Jakarta auction experienced excellent demand this week. The weather conditions in the tea growing areas are favourable, which is reflected in the auction quantities. The gap with last year’s offerings is becoming smaller but is still running >25% behind on a weekly basis.
Despite it is the end of the season, North Indian auctions met good demand, better liquoring teas traded firm to dearer and others eased. South Indian auctions traded firm to dearer as well.
In Vietnam the season has come to an end, the pruning of the tea bushes is almost finished in the north. With a warmer conditions than normal, some local producers expect the next season to start earlier than usual but there are still a few months to go.
The weather in Argentina has become drier and the tea bushes receive more sunshine and production is slowly coming back to normal. But the metrological institutes expect El Nino to move its tail again in the 2ndhalf of February.
Taking crop figures and auction quantities of the several markets into account, it can be noticed that there is nothing wrong with the supply side of tea at the moment. On the other hand we see that demand is easily able to absorb the offered quantities of tea. Drier than usual weather conditions won’t help the January Malawi crop, but could help Argentina’s. With record crop figures and auction quantities in Kenya, there is enough tea.
"There is time to go long, time to go short, and time to go fishing.”- Jesse Livermore